[Ccarc] SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNAODES POSSIBLE

[Tom Murray]

Public Severe Weather Outlook

From:  Tom Murray  KB9WSL

   ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 180946
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   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND
   TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT...

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES FROM
   THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS NORTH TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

          MUCH OF ILLINOIS
          INDIANA
          WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
          MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN
          WESTERN OHIO
          SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN

   SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.

   THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP
   FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH INTO ONTARIO EARLY FRIDAY.

   THIS FEATURE WILL BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT AFFECTED PARTS
   OF THE PLAINS AND OZARKS YESTERDAY...AND WILL SERVE TO FURTHER
   STRENGTHEN THE DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW ENTERING WESTERN IOWA.

   THE IOWA LOW WILL DRAW A BROAD CURRENT OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
   HUMID AIR NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF
   MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.

   AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS...THIS MOISTURE WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.  CONDITIONS WILL
   BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE IOWA LOW.

   WITH JET STREAM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
   SERVE AS FUEL...THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS.  WITH A
   BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THESE ROTATING STORMS
   COULD BECOME LONG-LIVED AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AND
   POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL.

   WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIKELY WILL EXIST IN THE
   MIDWEST...A MORE LIMITED POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXTEND SOUTH TO THE
   GULF COAST AND EAST TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS.  THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY OVER
   PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

   THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
   SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
   RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

   ..STEPHEN CORFIDI/STORM PREDICTION CENTER.. 10/18/2007

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